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US dollar under pressure before Fed decision
Published on 14.06.2017 20:03

The US dollar is taking a pounding against the major currencies early in the American session today after a disastrous round of local data has called into question the expected rate hike from the Fed in a few hours from now.

U.S. retail sales in May recorded their biggest drop in 16 months according to the Commerce department hitting the market at -0.3 percent against analysts’ expectations for a 0.1 percent rise.

CPI figures released to the market also disappointed investors, coming in at 1.9 percent against a consensus for a figure of 2 percent, and down from a whopping 2.7 percent just 4 months ago.

The Trump administration must be fretting at the news as they have promised American consumers an average yearly figure of around 3 percent on the back of increased spending on infrastructure and wide-ranging tax cuts, that investors are now starting to question.

Although the market unanimously expects the US Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points today, the disappointing data has called any further rate hikes into question this year, which may add immense pressure to the US dollar as two further rate hikes according to some analysts was a done deal as early as last week

"It won't stop the Fed from hiking interest rates later today, but it increases the downside risks to our forecast that there will be a further two rate hikes in the second half of this year," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

The material published in on this page is produced by the FIBO group companies, and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Andrew Masters

Analyst

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