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Australian dollar has further to fall
Published on 26.10.2017 12:46

The Australian dollar is under further pressure today after yesterday’s spectacular plunge which seems to have put to bed any interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the foreseeable future.

The market had been predicting that inflation numbers would finally hit the RBA’s target rate of between 2 and 3 percent but the figures fell well short coming in at 1.8 percent.

Rodrigo Catril, FX Strategist at the National Australia Bank predicts that the chances of further losses for the Aussie dollar are significant and a move down towards US75c is not out of the question.

“The AUD is currently trading at just under the US77c mark and fair value is seen at just under 78 cents, so the pair is well inside its 2.6 cent fair value range,” noted Catril.

“Also this means that despite the recent decline, the AUD is not stretched based on fundamentals suggesting there is still downside risk for the currency.” He added.

Data out of America late yesterday also didn’t help the Australian dollar with the durable goods figure coming in at 2.2 percent against analysts’ expectations for a figure of 1 percent which all but guarantees a rate hike from the US Federal in December.

This will only close the gap on the interest rate differentials between Australia and the US and make the Australian dollar less attractive as an interest bearing investment.

The material published in on this page is produced by the FIBO group companies, and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Andrew Masters

Analyst

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