The Australian dollar is making a run for the US68c mark in today’s trading session following the release of minutes from the latest policy meeting which warned the market again that interest rates were likely to remain low for an extended period.
And once again the RBA reiterated it would consider further policy easing if needed but the move would be based on both the domestic and global economy
The market has priced in a further rate cut before years end but depending on how things pan out, a 2nd reduction is not out of the question. This scenario is likely to keep the Aussie dollar from making any further gains
AUD/USD upside is limited despite AUD/USD stabilizing last week, and lifting on a trade‑weighted basis. Slowing global momentum and heightened economic risks will continue to weigh on the commodity‑sensitive currency," says Richard Grace, head of FX strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (
"Downside risk to global growth remains high and are USD supportive especially against AUD and NZD. US‑China trade tensions could get worse before getting better, a hard‑Brexit cannot be ruled out and global policymakers may react too slowly or timidly to slower growth momentum." He added.
The US Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates ,also in the foreseeable future but this move is unlikely to provide any support for the Australian dollar as any cuts are likely to be offset by bigger cuts from the RBA which is another reason any rally in the Antidopean currency may be short lived.
The trade wars between the US and China is also very destructive for the Australian economy as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner.
"The escalation of the trade conflict between the USA and China changes everything. Also, for the AUD. We now expect lower AUD-USD levels for the time being and have revised our forecast accordingly," says Esther Reichelt, an analyst at Commerzbank.
"Contrary to what we originally expected, the RBA could thus relax its monetary policy to a larger extent than the Fed. Accordingly, the Australian dollar is likely to remain on the defensive against the US dollar for the time being, which is why we now expect the downward trend in AUD-USD to continue," Reichelt added.
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