Chinese Oil Alliance
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Financial and commodity markets analytics

China's state-owned oil companies are negotiating an alliance for joint oil purchases.
Four state-owned refineries (China Petroleum & Chemical, PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinochem Group) will jointly announce the price of some grades of oil. In official sources, this is presented as an opportunity to facilitate the procurement of oil. This preliminary plan was supported by the PRC government.

In fact, this initiative is a cartel conspiracy:
• Due to the global oversupply, the oil market has undergone significant changes. Demand for “black gold” fell significantly for a long time. As we see, sellers suffer losses and it is buyers who rule the ball. Full dominance in the markets belongs to the dominant large buyer from China.
• The state-owned companies participating in this consortium are controlled from one administrative center, share logistics and import more than 5 million barrels per day in total, which is 20% compared with the volumes issued by OPEC. Even at the current level of the four companies, they are able to significantly influence prices by simply coordinating them among themselves. It is this alliance that will force exporting countries to make concessions and sell oil at favorable prices for the alliance. China receives leverage over prices of $ 4-8 per barrel.

Associations like this are created for the sole purpose of more effectively influencing oil prices, taking into account their interests. In allied relations, the stronger one always wins.
Objectively - the force will be on the side of the Chinese cartel.  If successful, the cartel will expand at the expense of smaller oil companies in China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

I believe that the creation of the Chinese cartel is an accomplished fact. Due to this, China gains leverage on prices of $ 4-8 per barrel, and most likely it will be drivers of the fall in oil prices.
Transactions for the sale of oil will be relevant from the beginning of August.

For reference. The largest suppliers of crude oil to China in 2019. 15 countries that supplied 90.1% of crude oil.
1. Saudi Arabia: $ 40.1 billion (16.8% of the total volume of imported crude oil to China)
2. Russia: $ 36.5 billion (15.3%)
3. Iraq: $ 23.7 billion (9.9%)
4. Angola: $ 22.7 billion (9.5%)
5. Brazil: $ 18.5 billion (7.8%)
6. Oman: $ 16.4 billion (6.9%)
7. Kuwait: $ 10.8 billion (4.5%)
8. United Arab Emirates: $ 7.3 billion (3.1%)
9. Iran: $ 7.1 billion (3%)
10. Great Britain: $ 6.3 billion (2.7%)
11. Congo: $ 5.54 billion (2.3%)
12. Malaysia: $ 5.5 billion (2.3%)
13. Colombia: $ 5.4 billion (2.3%)
14. Libya: $ 4.8 billion (2%)
15. Venezuela: $ 4.4 billion (1.9%)

The material published in on this page is produced by the FIBO group companies, and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.


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