Euro may jump tomorrow
Published on 06.03.2018 16:43

The Euro is proving itself to be a pretty resilient currency in light of recent events and come tomorrow the currency may be in for a further boost, depending on the tone of the ECB.

The recent Italian elections, which divided the Italian population and ended in a hung parliament threatens to turned into a drawn out process and possible new round of elections which in theory should have had investors exiting the Euro in droves as political uncertainty never does any favours for a currency.

Instead the market has taken this situation in its stride and has decided to wait for further clarity on what exactly will happen in regards to a future Italian government.

"The reaction in FX fixed income markets to the eurosceptic shift in Italy so far has been muted, as investors await more clarity on the composition of the next government," Danske Bank said in a note on Monday morning.

It seems as if investors are paying more attention to tomorrow’s events and in particular a speech by ECB president Mario Draghi who will lay out the plans of the European central bank in the nearest future.

If they remove the – easing bias statement the Euro is likely to surge as investors start to position themselves for possible rate hikes later in the year.

"A removal of the easing bias at this meeting is likely to strengthen the euro," said Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB Bank.

"The guidance was kept unchanged at the meeting in January, but the accounts from the January meeting confirmed that the Governing Council still expects to revisit the guidance 'early this year'," Haugland added.

 

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Andrew Masters

Analyst

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