After a horror 6 months the gold price has found much needed support over the last 4 weeks and is now sitting above the $1,200 mark and depending on the outcome of the trade wars between the US and China as well as upcoming congressional elections in November.
Trump announced on Monday a further $200 billion of tariffs against China who immediately retaliated with $60 billion of their own and the danger is now that the US will introduce even more tariffs that will cover nearly all of China’s exports.
This will hit the major companies such as apple who have major production facilities in China which lead some to believe that the tariffs will do more harm than good to America as consumer prices rise.
This may be the opportunity that gold has been looking for to break out of it’s recent range a investors once seek out the precious metal as a safe haven at the expense of the US dollar.
Over the last week there have already been signs of a reduced demand for the greenback and movements into gold as participants in the market position themselves for what they see is the inevitable consequences of the trade wars.
“It is worth noting that investors are of the belief that robust economic growth will shield the United States from the impacts a global trade war may present,” said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM
“A scenario where a trade war disrupts global growth and weakens the U.S. economy could trigger some safe-haven flows into gold. This assumption is based on the dollar depreciating and losing its safe-haven status.” He added.
Another factor that may provide support for the gold price and give it a real boost depending on the outcome is the congressional elections due in November where Donald Trump’s republican party are in real danger of losing their Majority in the house of representatives.
Some speculate in a worst case scenario this may be the beginning of proceedings to try and remove the president from office.
“It is no secret that Donald Trump’s presidency hinges on the mid-term elections if the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives in November, impeachment proceedings could begin in fairly short order” said Jonathan Butler, precious-metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corp
“The political uncertainty engendered by an impeachment could see the dollar lose ground and give some support to gold.” He added.
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