Gold price hinges on trade talks
Published on 26.11.2018 20:59

The end of this week could prove a pivotal moment for gold according to some analysts as US President Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Ping square off at the G20 summit in Argentina.

One of the main focuses of the summit is whether the presidents can come to an agreement over trade practices between the 2 countries which has been the source of much friction ever since Trump introduced trade tariffs against China who immediately retaliated with some of their own

If a deal on trade is not made, the case for moving interest rates higher in the US may lose momentum and pave the way for gold to sustain a serious rally.

"If Trump and Xi can't come to an agreement at the G20 meeting, I think you will see a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate increases next year, which in turn will help gold prices go higher," said Walter Pehowich, executive vice president of investment services at Dillon Gage Metals.

Some say besides the trade talks, other factors will come into play which should support gold such as the tax cuts that were introduced earlier on in Trump’s agenda which are now coming back to bite by causing huge deficits which will hit the US dollar.

A lower dollar usually means good news for gold.

 “The tax cuts were short-term stimulus measures, but now we are starting to see the budget deficits widening quite a bit,” he said. “We expect that deficits will be in great focus next year, which will weigh on the U.S. dollar,” said Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis.

Mr Dahdah also believes that the Fed rate hiking cycle has nearly run its course and well finish sooner rather than later.

 “Although the Federal Reserve will raise rates next year, we will reach the end of the cycle,” he added.

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Andrew Masters

Analyst

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