The gold price has run it course for the moment and there may not be much further gains for this year, but in 2020 the precious meatal is set to continue its trend upwards towards $1500 according to one analyst.
Gold has been on a major run in June, racking more than $150 in gains and the price may have risen to fast too quickly and we may be due for a rest.
“We now think they have risen too quickly,” said ABN AMRO precious metals strategist Georgette Boele.
“Since the start of June prices rallied from just above $1,305 to $1,440 or 10% higher. The prospect of rate cuts in the US and elsewhere has made gold as an investment asset more attractive.” He added.
According to the analyst, the catalyst for the pause in the gold price will be the US Federal Reserve when they next meet to decide the future of interest rates and there is growing speculation that they may reduce rates by 50 basis points which would leave gold well supported.
On the other hand, if they only reduce rates by 25 basis points, this is likely to disappoint the market and as a result gold will suffer the consequences.
“We expect a 25bp rate cut while the market sees a probability of 45% of a 50bp rate reduction. If the Fed only cuts by 25bp at the end of this month then this will probably trigger a profit-taking wave in gold prices, pushing prices towards USD $1,350 per ounce,” Mrs Boele added.
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