Oil awaits Iranian elections
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Financial and commodity markets analytics

The oil price is under pressure today, breaking a four-day winning streak after comments from representatives of the IEA and market expectations of the levels of US inventories due for release later this evening.

Earlier today, the IEA noted that the deal struck between Russia and China to extend production cuts well into next year may not do the trick in reducing oil supplies to a needed 5-year average which is required to to even out the balance between supply and demand.

The news sent the oil price in retreat as investors sided with the IEA and pondered the benefits of such a deal,

“It appears that the IEA report failed to inspire more buying because of the conflicting messages,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group.

“On one hand the market is in balance but the talk that OPEC still has more work to do to draw down global inventories dampened the enthusiasm.” he added.

In another big event for oil, the Iranian population will head to the polls on Friday to choose their new president in an election that’s likely to play a big part in the country’s nuclear ambitions as well as the future oil supplies.

In the run up to Friday’s election, major volatility is expected in the oil market and according to some, the market is underestimating just how big this event is and the political ramifications it could cause,

"We reiterate our call that Iran remains one of the most underappreciated political risks in the oil market. Moreover, we contend that the real risk is not of additional Iranian barrels coming online, but rather of a drop-off due to geopolitical developments," noted Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

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