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Oil to remain flat
Published on 11.10.2017 15:23

The oil price is set to remain stagnant over the next few years according to some analysts with the outside possibility that the price could tumble if Opec members fail to cooperate or production levels from the US continue to rise.

Oil production from the United States has risen 10 percent this year to more than 9.5 million barrels per day and they have no intention to go along with Opec and reduce supplies

“We don’t see big reasons for inventories to go down a lot from still high levels now. Hence we don’t see big reasons for prices to go up or down by much in 2018, and it’s similar for 2019,” said Jeff Brown, the president of consultancy Facts Global Energy.

Mr Brown also noted that Opec members will have to extend the current production cuts indefinitely, and a failure to do so could see the price of oil encounter substantial losses.

“OPEC doesn’t have an exit strategy. They need to continue to manage the market, or prices will drop a lot. If OPEC decides not to roll over, oil prices could easily could fall back into the $30s,” he said.

Oil could soon be traded in currencies other than the US dollar which will throw another round of uncertainty into the market, and according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist and managing director at High Frequency Economics, China and the Chinese yuan are set to be the main beneficiaries as the country buys more oil than any other.

"I believe that yuan pricing of oil is coming and as soon as the Saudis move to accept it as the Chinese will compel them to do. Then the rest of the oil market will move along with them." Mr Weinberg said

The material published in on this page is produced by the FIBO group companies, and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Andrew Masters

Analyst

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